The first pillar is Restore the Core. Gucci remains the emotional and economic center of gravity for the group. No credible long-term strategy can bypass the need to restore its momentum. The goal is not only to reignite demand but to rebuild the brand on a more sustainable trajectory. That means a disciplined turnaround focused on product coherence, margin quality, retail excellence and a clearer articulation of the brand’s cultural relevance. At the same time, Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta must continue accelerating. Both have reached a scale and international visibility that make them viable pillars of a more balanced group. Their continued growth is essential to reducing dependency on Gucci and to strengthening the group’s earnings profile. Balenciaga, still navigating the aftermath of reputational setbacks, also belongs to this pillar. Stabilizing it, clarifying its creative stance and rebuilding trust will determine whether it can once again become a meaningful contributor. Restore the Core is about rebalancing the group by making sure its leading maisons perform at a level that reflects their potential.
The second pillar is Shape the Portfolio. Luxury groups evolve through cycles of acquisition and consolidation, and Kering is not exempt from this logic. Some maisons, despite their heritage and cultural relevance, may not align with the economic architecture the group needs for the next decade. Brioni and Alexander McQueen are often cited in this context. They are respected brands, but scaling them to the levels required for meaningful group impact has proven structurally difficult. A disciplined assessment of these assets may lead to divestitures that free capital and managerial attention. Portfolio shaping is not only about brands. It can extend to capital heavy investments such as real estate or owned production facilities that no longer fit the group’s financial objectives. A lighter, more coherent portfolio allows resources to be deployed where returns are highest and where the strategic fit is strongest. Shape the Portfolio is about eliminating structural drag and increasing the group’s strategic agility.
The third pillar is Elevate the Mix. Once leverage is reduced and the internal transformation is underway, Kering can return to acquisitions with a clearer sense of identity and purpose. Targets would likely be mid-sized luxury brands in categories with high margins and strong structural tailwinds. Leather goods, jewelry and other niche luxury segments remain the most attractive fields. The goal would be to acquire brands that enrich the group’s quality mix, reduce dependency on any single maison, and offer long term visibility. Any acquisition must be accretive, but more importantly, it must be coherent with the new cultural and operational model Kering is trying to build. Elevate the Mix is not about adding volume but about reinforcing the group’s long term value creation engine. The recent acquisition of a significant stake in Valentino also belongs clearly to this pillar. Valentino is one of the few independent Italian maisons with global scale, deep cultural equity and substantial room for margin expansion, and Kering’s investment signals a deliberate move toward strengthening the group’s quality mix at the top end of luxury. It is not a passive financial position but a strategic bridge toward a possible full ownership path, and it reflects the kind of targeted, high-quality acquisitions that align with the identity Kering is trying to build in its next chapter.
These four directions, taken together, form the outline of a strategy that can reposition Kering for the next decade. Rebuild the Engine establishes the foundations. Restore the Core rebuilds performance where it matters most. Shape the Portfolio clears the path of legacy burdens and creates financial flexibility. Elevate the Mix adds selective, high quality growth aligned with a renewed identity.
The risks are real. Internal transformation demands discipline and patience. Turnarounds are delicate operations that require alignment between creative direction, merchandising discipline and retail execution. Portfolio decisions are never emotionally easy. Mergers and acquisitions require precise integration capabilities. Yet the alternative, which is to allow the group to drift through slow decline, is far riskier.
Kering has reinvented itself before. It moved from a diversified conglomerate to a pure luxury player. It rode a decade long creative wave that reshaped the industry. It has the talent, the heritage and the capital to shape a new chapter. What it needs now is a return to the fundamentals that defined great luxury houses long before the era of hyper growth: craftsmanship, consistency, operational rigor and the long view.
Risks and Constraints: Where Execution Can Falter
The risks are multifaceted. The first is the market environment. Luxury growth is slowing compared to the extremes of 2021 and 2022. Consumers are more selective. Regional volatility is higher. The United States is unpredictable, and China continues to move in cycles.
The second risk is the internal complexity of creative transitions. Gucci’s repositioning toward more elegant, timeless luxury requires patience and investment. It may take several seasons before the market fully responds. The same applies to Bottega Veneta, where the new aesthetic must mature, and to Balenciaga, where reputation rebuilding is delicate.
The third risk lies in organizational delivery. Kering cannot repeat the pattern of slow execution that affected parts of the group in the past. Operational reforms must be swift and precise. Decision making must be simplified. Empowerment must be real, not symbolic.
A fourth risk concerns investor expectations. The beauty sale provides liquidity but also heightens scrutiny. Investors will expect clear milestones, transparent communication and consistent progress. Any perception of strategic drift will undermine confidence.
Finally, Kering must manage cultural evolution without diluting the creative essence of its maisons. The group’s strength historically came from its ability to detect and nurture creative talent. That must not be lost in the pursuit of efficiency.
Alternative Disruptive Paths: What Kering Could Do If Incremental Change Is Not Enough
While Kering’s immediate roadmap will likely center on operational discipline, brand elevation and portfolio optimization, there are a handful of more radical strategic moves that could reshape the group’s long-term trajectory. These are not the scenarios management is signaling today, but they are credible alternatives if the expected turnaround in Gucci and the broader maisons takes longer than planned or if structural headwinds in the sector intensify. Considering them helps frame the full strategic frontier of what the group could become.
Among the most disruptive but still realistic actions, three stand out. Each has precedent in the industry, each would alter Kering’s competitive position in a profound way, and each would require significant conviction and governance alignment.
1. A Strategic Merger or Deep Alliance: Creating a New European Luxury Champion
The first disruptive scenario would involve Kering entering a transformative merger, integration or long-term strategic alliance with another major player. The most discussed possibility in industry circles, though often viewed as distant, is a combination with Richemont. The logic is not difficult to understand. Richemont has a world class portfolio in hard luxury with Cartier, Van Cleef and Arpels, Jaeger-LeCoultre, IWC, Panerai and others, and it has long been perceived as subscale in fashion. Kering, by contrast, is strong in fashion, leather goods and accessories but lacks a robust presence in watches and jewelry. The complementarities are obvious. Together the two companies would cover the most profitable segments of global luxury with far stronger category diversification.
There are precedents. LVMH itself is the result of a long sequence of mergers and acquisitions that created an ecosystem spanning fashion, beauty, spirits and jewelry. More recently, Estée Lauder’s acquisition of Tom Ford demonstrated how multi-category integration can be used to secure long term creative assets and revenue pools. A hypothetical Kering–Richemont combination would echo that same principle but on a far larger scale. It would give Kering direct access to the high margin, highly resilient world of hard luxury, where pricing power is less dependent on creative hype and more grounded in craftsmanship and scarcity. It would, in turn, provide Richemont with the fashion and leather goods expertise that its maisons have historically lacked, creating a more balanced group.
The implications, however, would be enormous. A merger would trigger regulatory scrutiny, particularly in Europe and China. Governance complexity would rise sharply, as Richemont’s foundation-influenced structure and the Pinault family’s tight control at Kering are not easily reconciled. Integration challenges across cultures, operating models and creative governance would be significant. And the cost of capital, technology integration and internal restructuring required to make such a merger succeed would be substantial.
Yet one should not dismiss the scenario. Luxury is becoming increasingly dominated by companies with global scale, deep capital and cross category firepower. If the industry moves toward more consolidation at the top and if Kering’s organic recovery proves slower than hoped, a bold move of this type could become strategically compelling. It would redefine Kering’s competitive stance overnight and reposition the company as a truly multi-pillar luxury leader rather than a fashion-centric group with concentration exposure.
2. A Spin Off or Structural Monetization of Kering Eyewear: Turning a High Performing Division Into an Independent Growth Engine
The second disruptive option would be for Kering to spin off or structurally monetize Kering Eyewear. This business has quietly become one of the group’s most impressive success stories. Created from scratch only a decade ago, it has grown into a fully integrated industrial platform with design, manufacturing, distribution and licensing capabilities. Unlike many luxury eyewear divisions housed inside larger conglomerates, Kering Eyewear already operates with a high level of autonomy and entrepreneurial agility. The acquisition of Lindberg added technical capability and the more recent consolidation of eyewear licenses reinforced the strategic coherence of the division.
Turning this business into a separate entity through an IPO, a minority stake sale or a partnership with a major investor could unlock significant value. The eyewear market trades at valuation multiples that often exceed those of fashion houses because the category benefits from repeat purchases, scalable manufacturing and higher predictability. EssilorLuxottica’s valuation is one example. Safilo, despite being much smaller, provides another. A standalone Kering Eyewear could command multiples well above those of the broader Kering group, reflecting its industrial profile and clearer growth trajectory.
This type of move is not without precedent. Capri Holdings at one point evaluated breaking out its Jimmy Choo and Versace businesses. L’Oréal has historically spun off non core assets to sharpen strategic focus. Even Richemont separated Yoox-Net-A-Porter when it became clear that pure play luxury e commerce required a different capital model. By monetizing part of Kering Eyewear, Kering would release liquidity that could be reinvested in strategic M&A, in hard luxury, in strengthening Gucci, or even in returning capital to shareholders.
The main implication would be a shift in what Kering wants to be. If the company retains a majority stake, the spin off becomes primarily a financial maneuver that raises capital while keeping long term strategic alignment. If Kering fully separates the division, it signals a decisive reaffirmation that the group intends to remain focused on fashion, leather goods and jewelry, rather than developing parallel industrial platforms. There is merit in both paths. What matters is that Kering Eyewear has grown sizable enough that its future is no longer tied mechanically to the fate of the other maisons. It has become an asset with its own economic logic, and treating it strategically rather than passively could unlock meaningful value.
3. A Deep Digital and Clienteling Transformation: Building the Most Advanced Customer Ecosystem in Global Luxury
The third disruptive scenario involves not a portfolio shift, but a foundational reinvention of how the group operates. This would be a full scale build out of a unified digital, data and clienteling ecosystem, turning customer intelligence and personalized engagement into one of Kering’s primary competitive advantages.
The luxury industry has spoken for years about digital integration, yet true end-to-end transformation remains rare. Most groups operate with fragmented CRM systems, limited cross maison visibility and underdeveloped predictive tools. LVMH, despite its resources, still maintains siloed customer data across its maisons. Richemont made strides with YNAP but struggled to integrate it operationally. Even Hermès, the purest expression of luxury discipline, intentionally limits digital depth by keeping distribution exceptionally controlled.
Kering therefore has an opportunity. The group is large enough to justify major investments in unified infrastructure, but small enough compared to LVMH to avoid the burden of heavy legacy IT. A fully integrated client ecosystem would include a single customer ID across all maisons, data enriched with behavioral and transactional signals, advanced predictive algorithms for demand, high precision clienteling tools for store teams, personalized product drops and communication, AI-supported merchandising and replenishment and retail analytics that guide store layout, inventory and service patterns.
The implications would be enormous. A group that can understand its customers more deeply than any competitor has a natural hedge against creative volatility. It can identify high value clients earlier, grow share of wallet and stabilize revenue cycles even during periods of creative transition. It can increase retail productivity without excessive store expansion. And it can shift the company from marketing driven acquisition to relationship driven lifetime value, an area where luxury has historically lagged.
There are precedents, although none at full scale. Burberry’s attempt to be the first truly digital luxury brand more than a decade ago moved the industry forward even if it fell short operationally. Farfetch’s platform ambition showed what data driven personalization could look like, even if the economics were flawed. The hospitality sector, particularly Marriott and Hilton, demonstrate the power of unified customer IDs and cross brand loyalty. A Kering that applies this logic to luxury retail could set a new industry standard.
This strategy is not without risk. It requires heavy upfront investment, cultural adaptation and strong governance to ensure maisons adopt shared tools without losing their creative independence. But among all disruptive options, it is the one most aligned with Kering’s stated direction. The group repeatedly emphasizes operational discipline, modern capabilities and better execution. A deep digital transformation would give coherence to those ambitions and anchor the next decade of growth on infrastructure rather than luck.
Taken together, these three paths form a useful counterpoint to the more expected roadmap of brand elevation, portfolio tightening and the potential restart of targeted acquisitions. They represent a deeper shift in how Kering might rebuild scale, resilience and competitive power if the industry becomes more demanding or if the group concludes that incremental measures do not provide enough acceleration.
A strategic merger would redefine the group’s boundaries. A spin off of Kering Eyewear would redefine the group’s financial architecture. A deep digital transformation would redefine the group’s operating model.
None of them is simple. All require conviction and long term continuity. But each of them sits at the frontier of what a reimagined Kering could stand for if it chooses to rebuild not only its brand portfolio, but the entire logic of how it competes.
Conclusion: A Moment of Truth
Kering stands at a pivotal moment. The transformation outlined in the first article and the financial considerations examined in the second converge into a single, defining test. Can the group translate its reinvention into a disciplined, strategically coherent and financially robust trajectory. The sale of the beauty division to L’Oréal is a pragmatic response to an immediate need, but it also marks a boundary. It narrows optionality and increases pressure on the core fashion brands.
The road ahead requires focus. Gucci must re-establish its desirability. Saint Laurent must continue its ascent. Bottega Veneta must consolidate its relevance. Balenciaga must restore trust and credibility. Kering must streamline operations, clarify its identity and communicate a compelling narrative to the market.
This is not a crisis, but it is a decisive crossroads. Reinvention is not complete. It is entering its most demanding phase. If Kering succeeds, it will emerge leaner, more diversified and more resilient. If it fails, it risks remaining in the shadow of larger competitors with stronger financial and operational engines.
In the end, the north star is simple, even if the path is not. Discipline and diversification. Execution and identity. Creative excellence supported by operational mastery. Kering does not need to reinvent luxury. It needs to reinvent how it delivers it.
And the next eighteen months will tell us whether this transformation was an ambition or a turning point.